What to make of the Special Election in 6th Congressional District (Ron Wright Succession)

 SUSAN WRIGHT VS. JAKE ELLZEY 

Who's upset ? 

So the Trump-endorsed candidate didn't win. This may not be as big a deal as it appears at first glance, however. 

Consider this: It was a special election in which the first round --- on May 1, 2021 -- was a free-for-all with more than 20 candidates. 

Susan Wright, the Trump-endorsed widow of the deceased congressman, got the most votes, but that was only 19.2%. Ellzey came in second with 13.8%. So that left 67% spread out out among other candidates, none of whom advanced to the runoff. 

Those in the 67% pool could then decide not to vote in the runoff, or to cast their ballot to for the more acceptable of the two top scorers from the first round, both of them Republicans. 

Assuming that not all of the supporters of unsuccessful Democratic candidates from the first round decided to abstain, wouldn't it make sense for them to support the less-Trumpy candidate as the "lesser evil" among the two? 

HOW WOULD DEMS VOTE WHEN THE CHOICE IS BETWEEN TWO REPUBLICANS? 

Another way to look at it is this: The Trump-supported candidate wasn't up against a Democratic opponent in the run-off, but against another Republican. But this wasn't a Republican primary in which only Republicans participate. 

In the Wright vs. Ellzey matchup, the Democratic voters had no Democrat to vote for. So, assuming that some Democrats nevertheless participated in the runoff, they presumably opted for Jake Ellzey and helped him win. 

If  we look at the absolute number of votes cast, we see that the tally for both candidates went up, compared to their performance in the very crowded first round: 

Susan Wright  1st Round: 15,052;  2nd Round: 18,232

Jake Ellzey 1st Round: 10,851; 2nd Round: 20,762 

Total votes 1st Round: 78,374; 2nd Round: 38,994 (98.00% precincts reporting)

Since both candidates in the run-off received more votes than each had, respectively, received in the first round, we can deduce that both picked up support from the voters who had supported candidates that were eliminated. 

Overall, however, the turnout was much lower in the runoff. So many supporters of unsuccessful candidates didn't show up for the run-off, but Ellzey almost doubled his tally. 

Without individual-level survey data, of course, we don't know whether the Democratic vote component in the runoff was decisive for Ellzey's victory. But we shouldn't ignore this aspect of the special elections and center all interpretations automatically around the role of Trump. . 

DATA SOURCE: Ballotpedia page for Susan Wright 

Jake Ellzey ITexas House Profile 
House District 10 

REFERENCES: 

In a major upset against a candidate backed by Donald Trump, Jake Ellzey wins runoff for Fort Worth-area congressional seat. Ellzey, a state representative, beat fellow Republican Susan Wright, who was backed by former President Donald Trump. Ellzey will finish the term of Ron Wright, who died earlier this year after contracting COVID-19. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-21 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

Susan Wright, former President Donald Trump's chosen candidate, lost to another Republican in Tuesday's Texas House election. POLITICO 2021-07-28 by ALEX ISENSTADT ("Now, Trump and his advisers are trying to figure out what Wright’s defeat means for them — and how to contain any damage. Her loss Tuesday night sent shockwaves through the former president’s inner circle.") 

Jake Ellzey Wins Texas Special Election, Upsetting Trump-Endorsed Candidate. The GOP state representative will represent the congressional district south of Dallas. WALL STREET JOURNAL 2021-07-28 (updated) by KRISTINA PETERSON https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-special-election-tests-trumps-influence-in-gop-11627390823 

ELECTION RESULTS FROM TEXAS SECRETARY OF STATE 

Status: 94 of 94 Polling Locations Reporting, 3 of 3 Counties Date: July 27, 2021 10:32:23

U. S. REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6 - UNEXPIRED TERM

Candidate Name Party Early / Total Votes Percent

JAKE ELLZEY REP 10,860 20,837 53.27%

SUSAN WRIGHT REP 9,713  18,279 46.73%

Race Total 39,116

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In the 2018 general elections, the total votes in District 6 aggregated to 256,042. 

Ronald Wright (R) won with  135,961 (53.1%) against Democratic candidate Jana Lynne Sanchez (D)

PRE-RUNOFF COVERAGE 

Texas GOP gears up for contentious runoff in TX-6 congressional race as Democrats grapple with being shut out. The runoff pits Susan Wright against fellow Republican Jake Ellzey after Democrats failed to advance a candidate in the Saturday special election. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-05-05 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

Donald Trump endorses Susan Wright in crowded special election to fill her late husband's congressional seat. Susan Wright is among 11 Republicans — and 23 candidates total — vying to replace her late husband, Ron Wright, R-Arlington, in Congress. Election day for the special election is Saturday. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-04-26 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

State Rep. Jake Ellzey faces mounting opposition from his right in special election to replace Ron Wright in Congress. A national group is spending six figures to try to stop Ellzey ahead of the May 1 election, and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz came out against him on Tuesday.  TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-04-20 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

23 candidates join the race to replace late U.S. Rep. Ron Wright. The field for the May 1 special election features 11 Republicans, 10 Democrats, one independent and one Libertarian. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-03-03 by PATRICK SVITEK.