How Ellzey Trumped Trump-favored Candidate Susan Wright in TX-06 Special Election

 Why did State Rep. Jake Ellzey, R-Waxahachie, win the runoff race for Texas' 6th Congressional District against Donald Trump-backed Susan Wright?

How did he do it? 

A VERY SPECIAL SPECIAL ELECTION

(WITH A LOW TURNOUT) 

In a post-mortem of Ellzey's surprise win over Susan Wright, the Trump-endorsed candidate to succeed the late Congressman Ron Wright, the Tribune's Patrick Svitek provides anecdotal evidence supporting the proposition that Democrats contributed to the loss of Trump's favored candidate. 

Also see prior post here, which made inferences based on the election data:  What to make of the Special Election Result in 6th Congressional District (Ron Wright Succession)

Whether Democrats played a key role in the deciding the contest between the two Republican candidates remains an open question, but it is essentially an empirical one. Even in the absence of exit poll data, it would be possible to estimate the amount of voting by Democrats, based on their prior voting history in Democratic primaries. 

Short of that type of analysis at the micro-level, a statistical analysis of precinct results could also shed some light on the genesis of Ellzey's victory, such as comparing the two candidates' performance in the first and second rounds in light of historical election results, including Ron Wright's performance in 2018. Wright defeated Jake Ellzey in the Republican primary runoff on May 22, 2018. 

One hypothesis would be that Ellzey was favored by his own current constituents in state house district 10 (mostly Ellis County), which is a component of congressional district 6. 

CAUSE VS. BLAME 

Trump reportedly "blamed" Democrats for the special-election upset. Think about that for a moment. What's the underlying assumption there? That Democrats should not be voting at all, lest they get to participate in deciding who will represent them? This was a special election, not a Republican primary. So Democratic voters had as much a right to register their preference among the two candidates that made it into the run-off as Republican voters. 

Unofficial election results as reported by Texas SOS
 (100% of precincts)

PARTICIPATION RATE IN PERSPECTIVE   

If we put the turnout in the decisive run-off race in perspective, we see  that it was about half of the number of votes cast in the first round, which featured 23 candidates, and only a fraction of the number that got Ron Wright elected in the 2018 general election.

Runoff total votes: 39,116. Ellzey won with 20,837 (53.27%) 

First round total votes: 78,374. Susan Wright scored first with 78,374 (19.2%), Ellzey second with 10,851 (13.8%). 

2018 U.S. HOUSE TEXAS DISTRICT 6 ELECTION RESULTS 

Total votes in Nov. 6, 2018 general election: 256,042. Ronald Wright won over Democrat Jana Sanchez with 53.1% in a race that also featured a Libertarian, who received 1.5%. The total tally for Wright was 135.961. Ellzey had been eliminated in the GOP runoff.  

Total votes in runoff between Ronald Wright and Jake Ellzey in 2018: 24,433. Ellzey lost with 11,686 (47.8%).  

Total votes in first round of Republican primary in 2018: 45,960. Ellzey scored second with one vote shy of 10K (21.8%). Ronald Wright led a field of ten candidates with 20,750 (45.1%). 

DATA SOURCES: Jake Ellzey Ballotpedia Page, Texas Secretary of State 

REFERENCE

How Republican Jake Ellzey's bipartisan appeal, positive campaign helped him upset Trump's pick for Congress. Wright’s coveted endorsement from Trump — which appeared so powerful in propelling her to the top in the initial election — may have contributed to her undoing in the runoff where state Rep. Jake Ellzey benefited from a more bipartisan appeal, coupled with a more positive, energetic campaign. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-29 by PATRICK SVITEK 

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What to make of the Special Election in 6th Congressional District (Ron Wright Succession)

 SUSAN WRIGHT VS. JAKE ELLZEY 

Who's upset ? 

So the Trump-endorsed candidate didn't win. This may not be as big a deal as it appears at first glance, however. 

Consider this: It was a special election in which the first round --- on May 1, 2021 -- was a free-for-all with more than 20 candidates. 

Susan Wright, the Trump-endorsed widow of the deceased congressman, got the most votes, but that was only 19.2%. Ellzey came in second with 13.8%. So that left 67% spread out out among other candidates, none of whom advanced to the runoff. 

Those in the 67% pool could then decide not to vote in the runoff, or to cast their ballot to for the more acceptable of the two top scorers from the first round, both of them Republicans. 

Assuming that not all of the supporters of unsuccessful Democratic candidates from the first round decided to abstain, wouldn't it make sense for them to support the less-Trumpy candidate as the "lesser evil" among the two? 

HOW WOULD DEMS VOTE WHEN THE CHOICE IS BETWEEN TWO REPUBLICANS? 

Another way to look at it is this: The Trump-supported candidate wasn't up against a Democratic opponent in the run-off, but against another Republican. But this wasn't a Republican primary in which only Republicans participate. 

In the Wright vs. Ellzey matchup, the Democratic voters had no Democrat to vote for. So, assuming that some Democrats nevertheless participated in the runoff, they presumably opted for Jake Ellzey and helped him win. 

If  we look at the absolute number of votes cast, we see that the tally for both candidates went up, compared to their performance in the very crowded first round: 

Susan Wright  1st Round: 15,052;  2nd Round: 18,232

Jake Ellzey 1st Round: 10,851; 2nd Round: 20,762 

Total votes 1st Round: 78,374; 2nd Round: 38,994 (98.00% precincts reporting)

Since both candidates in the run-off received more votes than each had, respectively, received in the first round, we can deduce that both picked up support from the voters who had supported candidates that were eliminated. 

Overall, however, the turnout was much lower in the runoff. So many supporters of unsuccessful candidates didn't show up for the run-off, but Ellzey almost doubled his tally. 

Without individual-level survey data, of course, we don't know whether the Democratic vote component in the runoff was decisive for Ellzey's victory. But we shouldn't ignore this aspect of the special elections and center all interpretations automatically around the role of Trump. . 

DATA SOURCE: Ballotpedia page for Susan Wright 

Jake Ellzey ITexas House Profile 
House District 10 

REFERENCES: 

In a major upset against a candidate backed by Donald Trump, Jake Ellzey wins runoff for Fort Worth-area congressional seat. Ellzey, a state representative, beat fellow Republican Susan Wright, who was backed by former President Donald Trump. Ellzey will finish the term of Ron Wright, who died earlier this year after contracting COVID-19. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-21 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

Susan Wright, former President Donald Trump's chosen candidate, lost to another Republican in Tuesday's Texas House election. POLITICO 2021-07-28 by ALEX ISENSTADT ("Now, Trump and his advisers are trying to figure out what Wright’s defeat means for them — and how to contain any damage. Her loss Tuesday night sent shockwaves through the former president’s inner circle.") 

Jake Ellzey Wins Texas Special Election, Upsetting Trump-Endorsed Candidate. The GOP state representative will represent the congressional district south of Dallas. WALL STREET JOURNAL 2021-07-28 (updated) by KRISTINA PETERSON https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-special-election-tests-trumps-influence-in-gop-11627390823 

ELECTION RESULTS FROM TEXAS SECRETARY OF STATE 

Status: 94 of 94 Polling Locations Reporting, 3 of 3 Counties Date: July 27, 2021 10:32:23

U. S. REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6 - UNEXPIRED TERM

Candidate Name Party Early / Total Votes Percent

JAKE ELLZEY REP 10,860 20,837 53.27%

SUSAN WRIGHT REP 9,713  18,279 46.73%

Race Total 39,116

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In the 2018 general elections, the total votes in District 6 aggregated to 256,042. 

Ronald Wright (R) won with  135,961 (53.1%) against Democratic candidate Jana Lynne Sanchez (D)

PRE-RUNOFF COVERAGE 

Texas GOP gears up for contentious runoff in TX-6 congressional race as Democrats grapple with being shut out. The runoff pits Susan Wright against fellow Republican Jake Ellzey after Democrats failed to advance a candidate in the Saturday special election. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-05-05 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

Donald Trump endorses Susan Wright in crowded special election to fill her late husband's congressional seat. Susan Wright is among 11 Republicans — and 23 candidates total — vying to replace her late husband, Ron Wright, R-Arlington, in Congress. Election day for the special election is Saturday. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-04-26 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

State Rep. Jake Ellzey faces mounting opposition from his right in special election to replace Ron Wright in Congress. A national group is spending six figures to try to stop Ellzey ahead of the May 1 election, and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz came out against him on Tuesday.  TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-04-20 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

23 candidates join the race to replace late U.S. Rep. Ron Wright. The field for the May 1 special election features 11 Republicans, 10 Democrats, one independent and one Libertarian. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-03-03 by PATRICK SVITEK.