GUV Race 2022

2021 CAMPAIGN LINEUP 

FOR 2022 GUBERNATORIAL RACE 

  • DEM PRIMARY: (¿) Beto O'Rourke aka Robert Francis O'Rourke (previously a member of Congress from El Paso, Dem candidate for U.S. Senator in race against Senator Ted Cruz, and presidential candidate (?)   

Beto advocating for voting rights at Texas State Capitol in Austin 
June 20, 2021 

RUNNING ASSESSMENT AS OF JULY 18, 2021 

Who is the most Conservative of them all? 

As shown in recent polling, Governor Abbott enjoys the support of rank-and-file Republican voters, and has a massive fund-raising advantage as a business-friendly incumbent going into the campaign for a third term. Trump has already endorsed him. 

Abbott's GOP primary opponents face a tough uphill struggle. They are trying to distinguish themselves from Abbott by positioning themselves farther out on the right wing and trying to outdo each other in their extremism. 

Huffines not only  aspires to being more conservative than anyone else, but wants to abolish property taxes and pare down government to a bare minimum. 

Retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel Allen West has never fully managed the transition to civilian life and views politics as a battlefield. West casts himself as the crusader for God, country, and Texas. Those in his own camp that dare disagree with him and deviate from the mission will be excoriated, if not called traitors. In West's world, there is no room for compromise with political opponents. Rhetorically, he equates Democrats and progressives with Marxists who must be defeated to save the Republic. 


West says he cringes at the term democracy. Both Huffines and West place themselves in the tradition of those who took a stand at the Alamo, and went down for their cause. 

Meanwhile, Beto O'Rourke is also on a mission; - a mission to save democracy as we know it. 

Beto on the soap box in a neighborhood park 

Beto's Quest 

The Texas Democrats do not have a declared candidate for governor yet. Their best hope, Beto O'Rourke, has carefully avoided committing himself to a challenge of Abbott while he is dedicating  himself to a higher and more urgent priority: saving Democracy by fighting the Texas GOP's restrictive election reform legislation. Beto has criss-crossed the state and held rallies in public parks and at the state capitol, promoting grass-roots activism and voter registration. He is also fund-raising for the members of the Democratic House legislative caucus who went to Washington, D.C. to deny the Republicans a quorum during the first Special Session of the Texas Legislature called by the Governor, and to push for federal voting rights legislation. 

The wild card: Mr. Mc C 

Actor Alright-Alright-Alright Matthew McConaughey is a tease and a joker card in the leadup to the 2022 gubernatorial contest. 

Public opinion polls  indicate that McConaughey enjoys substantial support by Texas voters, to the point of being competitive with Abbott in a hypothetical man-to-man contest. This is in  large part a reflection of his celebrity status and his pre-existing fan base. Unlike other would-be Lone Star leaders, McConaughey already enjoyed great name recognition when he dropped hints that he might enter the political arena. And he is well-liked and relatable for reasons completly divorced from party affiliation and political ideology. Indeed, his own partisan leanings (if any) remain unknown while at the same time is already a proven success in the theatrical deparment. 

If McConaughey were to run for governor, it would make the most sense for him to do so as an independent or as a third-party candidate, rather then picking a primary fight on either side of the established party duopoly.  

Republicans have veered to right and have taken the culture war to the Dems, who find themselves on the defensive in the public discourse in addition to being relegated to positions of powerlessness in  all three branches of state government. They have no representation in the executive branch and in the high courts at all, and their last remaining leverage as minority party in the Texas Legislature is their ability to deny the dominant Republicans a quorum. Both parties are locked into their respective positions on the ideological spectrum and at the mercy of their most vocal and most committed partisans. 

McConaughey isn't known for taking tough or even reasonabily definitive stances on current political controversies.  He wants to be a centrist. Entering the contest as an independent  candidate would give him great flexibility on policy positions (because he would not have to toe any party line), and would allow him to appeal to moderate voters and current nonvoters, whom he could mobilize through his personal appeal and charisma, without being hemmed in by the rigid ideological and policy commitments of the two main parties, or the demands imposed by their respective organized factions and constituencies. 

A three-for-all 

A general-election contest among three candidates - one from each major party and a credible independent - would lower the threshold for victory because a plurality is enough to win, with no need for a run-off. But that advantage -- not having to garner more than 50% -- would apply to all three candidates (or four, if so), and would make the race much more competitive than it would otherwise be. The outcome would be entirely unpredictable. 

In an Abbott vs. Beto only contest, by contrast, Abbott would have the upper hand. Short of not voting at all, the  supporters of Allen West and Don Huffines would have no choice but to cast their vote for the GOP incumbent notwisthstanding their dissatisfaction with what they see as Abbott's unprincipled and lackluster performance during the pandemic.     

2021 MEDIA COVERAGE 

July 8. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has colossal $55 million war chest for 2022 reelection bid. Abbott’s campaign coffers hit the balance after he raised over $18.7 million during the last 10 days of June, his campaign announced Thursday. The campaign said the cash-on-hand total was larger “than any other statewide candidate in Texas history.” TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-08 by PATRICK SVITEK https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/08/texas-greg-abbott-fundraising-2022/ 

July 8. Texas Republicans Are Already Declaring for 2022. Democrats Are Dazed and Confused. GOP challengers have announced bids against Greg Abbott, Ken Paxton, and Sid Miller, while a forlorn Democratic party casts its eyes on Matthew McConaughey. TEXAS MONTHLY 2021-07-08 by Christopher Hooks. 

July 7. Allen West’s final days as state GOP chair filled with intraparty drama. With only days before he steps down from the helm of the state GOP, West is embroiled in a fight with his vice chair and under attack by county GOP chairs. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-07 by PATRICK SVITEK https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/07/allen-west-texas-gop/ 

July 4. Allen West running for governor of Texas. He's leaving his post as GOP state chair to challenge incumbent Republican Greg Abbott.POLITICO 2021-07-04 by DAVID COHEN https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/04/allen-west-running-for-governor-of-texas-498057 

July 4. Allen West announces he is running against Gov. Greg Abbott in Republican primary. The Texas GOP chairman made his campaign official Sunday. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-08 by PATRICK SVITEK 2021-07-04. https://www.texastribune.org/2021/07/04/allen-west-greg-abbott-texas-governor-election/ 

June 23. As Texas Republicans line up for 2022 primaries, Democrats are waiting on Beto O'Rourke and redistricting. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-06-23 by ABBY LIVINGSTON https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/23/beto-o-rourke-texas-democrats-2022/

June 16. Beto O’Rourke tours Texas again to rally Congress to take action on voting rights legislation. O'Rourke has visited at least 19 cities this month and plans to hold a final rally Sunday at the Texas Capitol in Austin. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-06-18 by PATRICK SVITEK. https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/18/beto-orourke-texas-voting/

June 4. Allen West resigns as chair of Texas Republican Party, says he's mulling statewide run. West declined to say whether he was eyeing any particular statewide office, though he told a radio host earlier Friday morning that the host was "safe" to assume West was mulling a gubernatorial run. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-06-04 https://www.texastribune.org/2021/06/04/texas-allen-west-republican-resigns/ 

May 10. Republican former state Sen. Don Huffines launches primary challenge to Gov. Greg Abbott. Huffines, who has criticized Abbott as being too slow to fully reopen the state, served in the Senate from 2015-19. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-05-10 by PATRICK SVITEK. https://www.texastribune.org/2021/05/10/don-huffines-texas-greg-abbott/

April 20. Beto O'Rourke is still campaigning. But for what? The Texas Democrat has spent 2021 so far block walking in South Texas and advocating for voting access before the Texas Legislature. If that means anything for his political future, he isn't saying.  TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-04-20 by BRYAN MENA https://www.texastribune.org/2021/04/20/beto-orourke-2022-texas/

Jan. 29. Greg Abbott and Beto O’Rourke spar in what could be a preview of the 2022 governor’s race. The Republican governor, who is up for reelection in 2022, and the state's best-known Democrat exchanged words Thursday after O'Rourke said he will consider challenging Abbott. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-01-29 (updated) by PATRICK SVITEK. https://www.texastribune.org/2021/01/28/greg-abbott-beto-orourke-texas-governor-race-2022/ [URL date one day off] 


State Capitol Building


OLDER NEWS ITEMS 

Nov. 17, 2020. Allen West takes sharp-elbowed approach as Texas GOP chair, raising intraparty tension ahead of legislative session. West has protested outside the Governor's Mansion and called the likely next speaker of the Texas House a "political traitor." The upcoming legislative session will put his influence within the party to the test. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-11-17 by  PATRICK SVITEK https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/17/allen-west-texas-gop-chair/ 

Nov. 11, 2020. Analysis: Texas Republicans and Allen West, their nettlesome party animal. Republican officeholders couldn't have had a better election in Texas this year, but they've still got noisy and loud critics — inside their own political party. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2020-11-11 by ROSS RAMSEY https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/11/texas-republican-legislature/ 

Nov. 9, 2020. Texas GOP Chair says party will not "support or accept" Republican Rep. Dade Phelan as next House speaker. Allen West, party chair, does not get to vote on the next speaker since he is not a House member. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2020-11-09 by CASSANDRA POLLOCK https://www.texastribune.org/2020/11/09/texas-gop-allen-west-dade-phelan-house-speaker/

Oct. 10, 2020. State GOP Chair Allen West, Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller join anti-Greg Abbott protest outside Governor's Mansion. The protest of Gov. Greg Abbott's coronavirus policies came on the weekend before early voting begins in the state. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-10-10 by PATRICK SVITEK https://www.texastribune.org/2020/10/10/protest-greg-abbott-governors-mansion/ 

Sep. 25, 2020. Analysis: Coronavirus splits Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and his own party. Voting in the 2020 general election starts in Texas in less than three weeks. But the governor's responses to the coronavirus have strained Republican unity. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2020-09-25 by ROSS RAMSEY https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/25/gov-greg-abbott-republicans-fight-coronavirus/ 

Sep. 23, 2020. Analysis: The 2020 election and Texas’ incremental blues. Democrats have their eyes on winning back the Texas House majority they lost in 2002. That wouldn't give them the power to pass legislation, but it would give them the power to stop legislation they don't like. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2020-09-23 by ROSS RAMSEY https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/23/election-texas-democrats/

Dec 12, 2019. Beto O'Rourke unveils PAC with focus on boosting Texas Democrats in 2020. The group, Powered by People, comes less than two months after O'Rourke ended his presidential campaign.TEXAS TRIBUNE 2019-12-20. by PATRICK SVITEK. https://www.texastribune.org/2019/12/20/beto-orourke-launches-pac-focused-texas-2020-elections/

 

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