Abbott Calls Second Special Session, Wants Change in Quorum Rule

 

Second Session Set to Start on Saturday 

There doesn't seem much in the laundry list of topics to make it worth for the Democrats to return to Austin, only to be consigned to the role of ineffective opposition on issues they fervently disagree on with the Republican majority. There is no sign that Abbott or the Republicans in the Legislature are willing to compromise, so all that is in store for Dems is the futility of their bodily presence. It sure doesn't inspire confidence that Governor Abbott has vowed that the quorum-breakers would be arrested upon their return to the state, and that Speaker Dade Phelan saw fit to actually issue a civil arrest warrant against at least one of them.  

What is worse is the prospect of being deprived of the ability to kill extremist or otherwise unacceptable GOP-sponsored bills through a walkout in the future. Ominously, the Governor has responded to LG Patrick's call to change the quorum requirements, presumably to weaken them to such a degree as to allow the Republicans to pass whatever they want irrespective of a legislative boycott by the minority Democrats. 

Ominously on the Agenda:
Legislation relating to legislative quorum requirements

This would be yet another debilitating blow to the opposition party and would mark a further consolidation of power by the Texas GOP, and of one-party rule at the state level. The Legislature currently is the only branch of Texas state government in which the Democrats have any representation at all. 

SOURCE MATERIAL AND REFERENCES

Gov. Abbott's Proclamation: 

https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/PROC_second_called_session_87th_legislature_IMAGE_08-05-21.pdf 

Gov. Greg Abbott announces special legislative session starting Saturday, covering elections, federal COVID-19 funding, quorum rules. The governor said Thursday the second special session will get underway at noon Saturday, with a 17-item agenda. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-08-05 by PATRICK SVITEK.   

Quorum-busting Texas House Democrats still plotting next move ahead of second special session. Following Gov. Greg Abbott’s announcement that a second round of legislative overtime would begin Saturday, the Democrats who relocated to Washington, D.C., to prevent the House from having enough members to conduct business indicated they are still discussing what they’ll do now. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-08-05 by ALEXA URA. 

Speaker Dade Phelan signs civil arrest warrant for Texas House Democrat who returned to Washington. The warrant to apprehend state Rep. Philip Cortez is the first one signed by the speaker since more than 50 House Democrats left the state to block Republicans from having the quorum needed to pass legislation during the special legislative session. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-26 by CASSANDRA POLLOCK. 

Texas House Republicans vote to track down absent Democrats and arrest them if necessary. The procedural move carries little apparent weight since the Democrats who fled the state to break quorum are beyond the jurisdiction of Texas law enforcement. TEXAS TRIBUNE by  PATRICK SVITEK and  CASSANDRA POLLOCK. 

Two Texas Lege Dems AWOL in Portugal

 PORTED TO PORTUGAL 

Playing Hooky in Portugal 

Bad optics, to say the least. On the other hand, the contingent of democracy-saviors-in-exile that remains mission-minded in the nation's capital should not take the bad rap for the action of those two. 

Hopefully, the porto-bound vacationers won't take the public per-diem while basking on the beach. That would make them look even worse. 

REFERENCE: 

Two House Democrats who broke quorum missing from Washington, D.C., reportedly vacationing in Portugal. Their vacation does not affect the lack of quorum that the House has in Austin that prevents the chamber from passing an elections bill. But it is at odds with Democrats’ insistence that they would use their time away to advocate for federal voting rights legislation in the nation’s capital. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-08-04 by PATRICK SVITEK and CASSANDRA POLLOCK.   

Do you agree ...? Online solicitation of opinion with loaded question

This jewel of a survey question was served up with a story on the next special session this morning:

Do you agree or disagree that public and private sectors must unite to safeguard America from the harmful effects of illegal trade? 

Is anyone in favor of illegal stuff and harmful effects? Is anyone opposed to safeguarding America? 

It's not even clear who is sposoring this blatent solicitation of supportive votes and  manipulation of public opinion results. 

The item was embedded in the following story: 

With special session’s end looming, Texas Democrats and Republicans mull their next moves. Abbott has promised to call a second special session to pass the GOP’s priority voting bill, but the exact timing is uncertain. And House Democrats have not yet revealed what they have planned after the session ends this week. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-08-04 by PATRICK SVITEK and CASSANDRA POLLOCK 

Pandemic Management with Monkey Wrench: Abbott's Policy of Thwarting COVID Containment

 While Other Governments Design and Implement Policies to Contain the Spread of the Delta Variant, Texas Governor Doubles Down and Bans Counties, Cities, and State Agency Officials from Doing So 

Punishing Containment Measures with Fines

THWARTER-IN-CHIEF 

It sounds preposterous, but here we go again. Texas Governor Greg Abbott once more invokes emergency powers under the Texas Disaster Act to thwart COVID-control measures by local governments that are designed to mitigate the declared disaster. Also decrees that local officials be subject to fines of  $1,000 if they do not obey his order by  imposing a face covering requirement. 

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Local Officials to be fined $1,000 
for requiring masks 

The new order, denominated GA-38, is here: https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/press/EO-GA-38_continued_response_to_the_COVID-19_disaster_IMAGE_07-29-2021.pdf 

The order re-states previously-imposed provisions, but also eliminates the 15% hospitalization threshold that allowed local officials to set capacity limits for businesses. 

Response to GA-38 by Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins (D) 

AG PAXTON (R): NO TO VAX MANDATES 

REFERENCES 

'Beyond reckless': Abbott faces backlash for executive order clarifying stance on masks. MYSANANTONIO 2021-07-30 by PRISCILLA AGUIRRE 

On Wednesday, San Antonio Mayor Ron Nirenberg and Bexar County Judge Nelson Wolff penned a letter to Abbott seeking his permission to allow schools to require face masks. Shortly after Abbott announced his new order, Nirenberg released a statement calling his action "tragically ironic.

"It is tragically ironic that Gov. Abbott continues his emergency order but has taken away the tools for us to mitigate that very emergency," Nirenberg said in a statement. "The governor has shown a callous disregard for life and safety in defiance of clear medical guidance and is risking the safety of our children and the recovery of our economy."

New order strips local officials' ability to set capacity limits amid high hospitalizations, stresses 'personal responsibility'. The new order comes as hospitalizations reached over 15% on Thursday in the Galveston region. Other areas are close to reaching that level. KHOU 11 2021-07-30 by ELINE DE BRUIJN 

The new order comes as hospitalizations reached over 15% on Thursday in the Galveston region, according to the state health department. Other areas are increasing close to that threshold, such as the Belton/Killeen region at 14% and Bryan/College Station region at 12%, according to the state. 

On Wednesday, WFAA reached out to county judges who said, at the time, still had the option to limit business capacity if hospitalizations were at 15%.

Now, here can be no COVID-related limits for operating a business or any other establishment, the new order said. School districts or local officials also can't enact mask requirements.

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s new order bans local governments from issuing mask, vaccine mandates. KSAT Local News. 2021-07-29 by FARES SABAWI 

As Texas COVID-19 cases surge again, some local officials urge everyone to wear masks and unvaccinated residents to stay home. Officials in Dallas, Harris and Travis counties want residents to take stronger precautions as the delta variant drives an increase in coronavirus infections across Texas. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-23 updated 2021-07-24 by COLLEEN DEGUZMAN 

How Ellzey Trumped Trump-favored Candidate Susan Wright in TX-06 Special Election

 Why did State Rep. Jake Ellzey, R-Waxahachie, win the runoff race for Texas' 6th Congressional District against Donald Trump-backed Susan Wright?

How did he do it? 

A VERY SPECIAL SPECIAL ELECTION

(WITH A LOW TURNOUT) 

In a post-mortem of Ellzey's surprise win over Susan Wright, the Trump-endorsed candidate to succeed the late Congressman Ron Wright, the Tribune's Patrick Svitek provides anecdotal evidence supporting the proposition that Democrats contributed to the loss of Trump's favored candidate. 

Also see prior post here, which made inferences based on the election data:  What to make of the Special Election Result in 6th Congressional District (Ron Wright Succession)

Whether Democrats played a key role in the deciding the contest between the two Republican candidates remains an open question, but it is essentially an empirical one. Even in the absence of exit poll data, it would be possible to estimate the amount of voting by Democrats, based on their prior voting history in Democratic primaries. 

Short of that type of analysis at the micro-level, a statistical analysis of precinct results could also shed some light on the genesis of Ellzey's victory, such as comparing the two candidates' performance in the first and second rounds in light of historical election results, including Ron Wright's performance in 2018. Wright defeated Jake Ellzey in the Republican primary runoff on May 22, 2018. 

One hypothesis would be that Ellzey was favored by his own current constituents in state house district 10 (mostly Ellis County), which is a component of congressional district 6. 

CAUSE VS. BLAME 

Trump reportedly "blamed" Democrats for the special-election upset. Think about that for a moment. What's the underlying assumption there? That Democrats should not be voting at all, lest they get to participate in deciding who will represent them? This was a special election, not a Republican primary. So Democratic voters had as much a right to register their preference among the two candidates that made it into the run-off as Republican voters. 

Unofficial election results as reported by Texas SOS
 (100% of precincts)

PARTICIPATION RATE IN PERSPECTIVE   

If we put the turnout in the decisive run-off race in perspective, we see  that it was about half of the number of votes cast in the first round, which featured 23 candidates, and only a fraction of the number that got Ron Wright elected in the 2018 general election.

Runoff total votes: 39,116. Ellzey won with 20,837 (53.27%) 

First round total votes: 78,374. Susan Wright scored first with 78,374 (19.2%), Ellzey second with 10,851 (13.8%). 

2018 U.S. HOUSE TEXAS DISTRICT 6 ELECTION RESULTS 

Total votes in Nov. 6, 2018 general election: 256,042. Ronald Wright won over Democrat Jana Sanchez with 53.1% in a race that also featured a Libertarian, who received 1.5%. The total tally for Wright was 135.961. Ellzey had been eliminated in the GOP runoff.  

Total votes in runoff between Ronald Wright and Jake Ellzey in 2018: 24,433. Ellzey lost with 11,686 (47.8%).  

Total votes in first round of Republican primary in 2018: 45,960. Ellzey scored second with one vote shy of 10K (21.8%). Ronald Wright led a field of ten candidates with 20,750 (45.1%). 

DATA SOURCES: Jake Ellzey Ballotpedia Page, Texas Secretary of State 

REFERENCE

How Republican Jake Ellzey's bipartisan appeal, positive campaign helped him upset Trump's pick for Congress. Wright’s coveted endorsement from Trump — which appeared so powerful in propelling her to the top in the initial election — may have contributed to her undoing in the runoff where state Rep. Jake Ellzey benefited from a more bipartisan appeal, coupled with a more positive, energetic campaign. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-29 by PATRICK SVITEK 

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What to make of the Special Election in 6th Congressional District (Ron Wright Succession)

 SUSAN WRIGHT VS. JAKE ELLZEY 

Who's upset ? 

So the Trump-endorsed candidate didn't win. This may not be as big a deal as it appears at first glance, however. 

Consider this: It was a special election in which the first round --- on May 1, 2021 -- was a free-for-all with more than 20 candidates. 

Susan Wright, the Trump-endorsed widow of the deceased congressman, got the most votes, but that was only 19.2%. Ellzey came in second with 13.8%. So that left 67% spread out out among other candidates, none of whom advanced to the runoff. 

Those in the 67% pool could then decide not to vote in the runoff, or to cast their ballot to for the more acceptable of the two top scorers from the first round, both of them Republicans. 

Assuming that not all of the supporters of unsuccessful Democratic candidates from the first round decided to abstain, wouldn't it make sense for them to support the less-Trumpy candidate as the "lesser evil" among the two? 

HOW WOULD DEMS VOTE WHEN THE CHOICE IS BETWEEN TWO REPUBLICANS? 

Another way to look at it is this: The Trump-supported candidate wasn't up against a Democratic opponent in the run-off, but against another Republican. But this wasn't a Republican primary in which only Republicans participate. 

In the Wright vs. Ellzey matchup, the Democratic voters had no Democrat to vote for. So, assuming that some Democrats nevertheless participated in the runoff, they presumably opted for Jake Ellzey and helped him win. 

If  we look at the absolute number of votes cast, we see that the tally for both candidates went up, compared to their performance in the very crowded first round: 

Susan Wright  1st Round: 15,052;  2nd Round: 18,232

Jake Ellzey 1st Round: 10,851; 2nd Round: 20,762 

Total votes 1st Round: 78,374; 2nd Round: 38,994 (98.00% precincts reporting)

Since both candidates in the run-off received more votes than each had, respectively, received in the first round, we can deduce that both picked up support from the voters who had supported candidates that were eliminated. 

Overall, however, the turnout was much lower in the runoff. So many supporters of unsuccessful candidates didn't show up for the run-off, but Ellzey almost doubled his tally. 

Without individual-level survey data, of course, we don't know whether the Democratic vote component in the runoff was decisive for Ellzey's victory. But we shouldn't ignore this aspect of the special elections and center all interpretations automatically around the role of Trump. . 

DATA SOURCE: Ballotpedia page for Susan Wright 

Jake Ellzey ITexas House Profile 
House District 10 

REFERENCES: 

In a major upset against a candidate backed by Donald Trump, Jake Ellzey wins runoff for Fort Worth-area congressional seat. Ellzey, a state representative, beat fellow Republican Susan Wright, who was backed by former President Donald Trump. Ellzey will finish the term of Ron Wright, who died earlier this year after contracting COVID-19. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-21 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

Susan Wright, former President Donald Trump's chosen candidate, lost to another Republican in Tuesday's Texas House election. POLITICO 2021-07-28 by ALEX ISENSTADT ("Now, Trump and his advisers are trying to figure out what Wright’s defeat means for them — and how to contain any damage. Her loss Tuesday night sent shockwaves through the former president’s inner circle.") 

Jake Ellzey Wins Texas Special Election, Upsetting Trump-Endorsed Candidate. The GOP state representative will represent the congressional district south of Dallas. WALL STREET JOURNAL 2021-07-28 (updated) by KRISTINA PETERSON https://www.wsj.com/articles/texas-special-election-tests-trumps-influence-in-gop-11627390823 

ELECTION RESULTS FROM TEXAS SECRETARY OF STATE 

Status: 94 of 94 Polling Locations Reporting, 3 of 3 Counties Date: July 27, 2021 10:32:23

U. S. REPRESENTATIVE DISTRICT 6 - UNEXPIRED TERM

Candidate Name Party Early / Total Votes Percent

JAKE ELLZEY REP 10,860 20,837 53.27%

SUSAN WRIGHT REP 9,713  18,279 46.73%

Race Total 39,116

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In the 2018 general elections, the total votes in District 6 aggregated to 256,042. 

Ronald Wright (R) won with  135,961 (53.1%) against Democratic candidate Jana Lynne Sanchez (D)

PRE-RUNOFF COVERAGE 

Texas GOP gears up for contentious runoff in TX-6 congressional race as Democrats grapple with being shut out. The runoff pits Susan Wright against fellow Republican Jake Ellzey after Democrats failed to advance a candidate in the Saturday special election. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-05-05 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

Donald Trump endorses Susan Wright in crowded special election to fill her late husband's congressional seat. Susan Wright is among 11 Republicans — and 23 candidates total — vying to replace her late husband, Ron Wright, R-Arlington, in Congress. Election day for the special election is Saturday. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-04-26 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

State Rep. Jake Ellzey faces mounting opposition from his right in special election to replace Ron Wright in Congress. A national group is spending six figures to try to stop Ellzey ahead of the May 1 election, and U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz came out against him on Tuesday.  TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-04-20 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

23 candidates join the race to replace late U.S. Rep. Ron Wright. The field for the May 1 special election features 11 Republicans, 10 Democrats, one independent and one Libertarian. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-03-03 by PATRICK SVITEK. 

The race to replace Paxton: It's all about the money, and who is "voting" with the big checks (at least for now)

Original Story (recycled for weekend edition)

Dozens of Paxton donors "defect" and back challengers 

In this weekend's front-page story, the Houston Chronicle spills much ink about the declining fund-raising prowess of embattled incumbent AG Ken Paxton. No substantive discussion of what the office of AG is all about, or what proposals (if any) the two GOP challenger might have for doing the job differently, and better. 

Democratic contender for AG and long-time Paxton detractor, Joe Jaworski, has set forth concrete priorities and policy positions on his campaign websites for months now. Alas, the Chronicle didn't even find it worth mentioning his name, and fails to acknowledge that there is now a contested primary on the other side of the political devide as well, following the recent announcement of a bid to beat and succeed Paxton by Lee Merritt.   

Money over substance, mirrored in the mainstream media's coverage of the campaign. 

REFERENCES:

Dozens of Paxton donors give to challengers. Defections to Bush, Guzman point to a tight GOP race for AG and weakened incumbent. HOUSTON CHRONICLE 2021-07-24 by TAYLOR GOLDENSTEIN. 

Original version of story: Texas AG Ken Paxton's donors are defecting to his challengers and taking big money with them (houstonchronicle.com)

George P. Bush outraises Attorney General Ken Paxton in primary challenge debut, though Paxton has bigger war chest. Bush started his Paxton challenge with a fundraising lead of $2.3 million to $1.8 million, but Paxton easily maintains the most cash on hand in a primary that also includes Eva Guzman, the former state Supreme Court justice. TEXAS TRIBUNE 2021-07-16. by PATRICK SVITEK.